Bond market is a buy right now, JP Morgan Asset Management's fixed income head
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According to Bob Michele of J.P. Morgan Asset Management, investors should take advantage of the current bond market opportunities without delay. He estimates returns of up to 8% over the next year, emphasizing the promising yield potential, especially in US treasuries. Michele reassures that a recession seems unlikely at this time while also alerting that inflation concerns could compel the Federal Reserve to implement larger rate hikes than expected.
There is a "generational amount of yield" in bond markets and it is time to buy debt, with a return of as much as 8% on offer in the US over the next the year, Bob Michele, J.P. Morgan Asset Management's head of global fixed income, said on Tuesday.The bond market has rebounded following a selloff this month and last, especially in developed-market sovereign debt:
"We expect both the Fed funds rate and the Treasury curve to converge (around 4.5%)," Michele told reporters in Singapore
Bonds Corner Powered By India bonds give up gains as high oil prices weigh
Indian government bonds declined on Monday due to rising oil prices affecting market sentiment and the rupee. The rupee fell for the third consecutive day, adding pressure on bond yields and currency. India's central bank is expected to consider interest rate hikes to stabilize the currency amidst inflation concerns. The Reserve Bank of India has raised its inflation forecast, anticipating a peak of 6% in consumer prices.
China's central bank sets up non-bank financial institution bond market swap facilitySumitomo Life to remain cautious on JGB yields, keep investment pace unchanged from H1French bond selloff eases as country spared ratings downgradeOil, US Treasuries prop up Indian bonds Browse all Bonds News with"Generally at the end of a hiking cycle the yield curve is flat ... so there's plenty of room for yields to run from where they are," he said
Carry and price appreciation are likely to deliver a return in the US market of 7% to 8% over the next 12 months, he said
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US 10-year yields were around 4.99% on Tuesday having spent much of the past few weeks above 5%
Investors expect the Fed funds rate window to stay at 3.75% to 4% when the Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision on Wednesday
"There is yield all over the place," said Michele. "When we looked at the Treasury curve a few weeks ago when it first went above 5%, to us the buy signal was real yield in the US that got to 3%. The last time we saw that was 2002. So at close to 25 years, that's a buying opportunity."
Japan, Australia, investment-grade credit and emerging market sovereign debt are among the stronger picks, he said.
"Everyone senses there's a generational amount of yield in bond markets," he said. "It's pretty clear with the global capex cycle out there, recession is a very low probability. That means every backup in credit spread (you) should buy."
The "tail risk," he said, was the Fed needing to hike much further than 4.5% to contain inflation
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