Cyclone Arnab may take heavy rain regime away from South Peninsula

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The building very severe cyclone is expected to track north-northeastwards, dragging a sprawling rain across large swathes eastern and central India, and away from most of the South Peninsula

By Vinson Kurian

Updated - October 26, 2026 at 10:30 AM.

Cyclone Arnab over west-central and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal has already taken away rain clouds away from most of Tamil Nadu and the South Peninsula on Monday morning. | Photo Credit: www.meteologix.com/in

Sunday’s depression gathered steam at accelerated pace overnight on Monday and intensified twice over to become cycloneArnab, the first of this north-east monsoon, over the east-central and adjoining south-east Bay. Moving at a brisk 15 km/hr early on Monday, the system is expected to intensify further into a very severe cyclone, putting the Andhra Pradesh coast squarely in the firing line.

Very severe cyclone soon

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) located the storm about 650 km east-south-east of Visakhapatnam; 730 km east-south-east of Kakinada; 830 km east of Machilipatnam; and 910 km east of Bapatla, all in Andhra Pradesh. The cyclone is forecast to barrel west-north-west, strengthen into a severe cyclone over the west-central Bay by midnight and a very severe cyclonic storm over the same region on Tuesday. It is then expected to swing north-westwards and cross the Andhra Pradesh-Yanam coast between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam by Wednesday morning, packing maximum sustained winds of 115-125 km/hr, gusting to 140 km/hr.

Rainfall regime to shift

The cyclone’s landfall, however, will be far from the end of the story. Although it will lose some punch after moving ashore, Arnab is expected to track north-north-eastwards, dragging a sprawling rain across large swathes of eastern and central India. Extremely heavy to very heavy rainfall, with heavy spells in several areas, is forecast across Odisha, Telangana, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar, West Bengal, Vidarbha, east Madhya Pradesh and east Uttar Pradesh over the three to four days beginning Wednesday.

The unfolding scenario could therefore shift the rain action away from much of the South Peninsula. The heavy-rain regime that has held sway over large parts of Tamil Nadu and adjoining South Peninsula, barring southern Tamil Nadu and Kerala, may give way to Arnab and its northward march into the eastern farming heartland of the country and farther east, with its reach extending towards east Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal. Chennai remained partly cloudy at 10 am, and may continue to remain same through the day today (Monday).

Striking storm features

The sheer geographical spread of the rainfall threat reflects the system’s expected staying power. Even after landfall, the erstwhile very severe cyclone is forecast to retain enough organisation to persist as a well-marked low-pressure area just short of depression strength until Friday. By then, it could have reached northern Chhattisgarh and adjoining east Madhya Pradesh, keeping the rain engines running well inland.

Arnab’s rapid strengthening also brings into focus a striking feature of tropical weather systems: their capacity to spring a surprise when ocean and atmospheric conditions fall into place. The Bay storm shares this broad characteristic with super typhoon Champi in the western Pacific and Hurricane Otis in the eastern Pacific, which intensified over distant waters during broadly the same period, though not over comparable windows.

Strong Pacific storms

Champi drew sustenance from sea-surface temperatures of around 30-31°C, high ocean heat content, weak vertical wind shear and efficient upper-level outflow, ingredients that can help a tropical system ramp up rapidly. Arnab, too, has been traversing waters with sea-surface temperatures of around 29-30°C, providing ample thermal fuel for intensification.

But Otis remains the standout example of explosive strengthening. In the 24 hours before reaching its peak, its winds surged from 107 km/hr to 268 km/hr, a staggering increase of 161 km/hr. It reached Category 5 intensity before slamming into Mexico, on October 25. Waters exceeding 30.5°C along part of its track, a deep reservoir of ocean heat, diminishing wind shear and a rapidly consolidating inner core combined to turbocharge its growth.

Published on October 26, 2026

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